"Zimbabwe has just celebrated its 32 years of self-rule, all dominated by one political party and the same 'big man'. It is a country at a crossroad... in dire need of renewal, and that renewal can no longer come from the old-guard nor the party of independence," writes Tapera Kapuya, a Zimbabwean analyst with the National Endowment for Democracy in Australia.
"... The current situation suggests considerable cause for concern for anyone interested in Zimbabwe's democratic transition. The unity government constitutionally comes to an end mid-2013 and elections or another political negotiation, or both, will determine the country's immediate future...," Kapuya says. "For Zanu-PF, the unity government gave it room to breathe, weaken the opposition, and buy time (for) Mugabe has never really shared any power at all.... Zanu-PF has retreated to its liberation war tactics, in particular, reactivating the party's political-military alliance.... It is this political-military alliance that guides Zanu-PF's march into its future."
During March, it became increasingly clear that President Mugabe and a significant number of his powerful 'old guard' are driving a call for general elections as early as mid-2012 and are bent on determining when they are held. Mugabe has also threatened to abandon the completion of a draft new Constitution and force through elections under the old 'Lancaster House' Constitution of 1979, which some believe could effectively and irrevocably collapse the Global Political Agreement (GPA), signed in September 2008.
Violence is reported by Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) politicians and NGOs to be on the increase, both in rural and urban areas, to the extent that some MDC MPs cannot safely enter their own constituencies. Zanu-PF's evolving 'parallel administration' is openly seeking support and resources from China and Iran, while diamonds are reportedly being clandestinely siphoned off and sold to build up Zanu-PF's 'war chest'. Indigenisation Minister Saviour Kasukuwere is brazenly admitting that the indigenisation exercise is designed to be a vote-buying exercise to benefit Zanu-PF supporters.