Polarisation of the three GPA signatories continues to develop. Zanu PF hardliners pushed for President Mugabe to abandon the GPA and mediation efforts by South African President Jacob Zuma on behalf of SADC with regard to the proposed roadmap to elections. The security forces are seen to be the biggest instigators in this position over fears that an agreed upon document will allow too many concessions to the MDC thereby weakening Zanu PF’s hold on political and military power.

Of the 100 media articles recorded in this edition of ZIG Watch for May, Zanu PF continue to be the party seemingly determined to stall or prevent full implementation of the GPA. Each recorded article signifies a unique breach of the terms set out in the GPA and by categorising these articles according to the nature of the breach, we have generated representative statistics.

Violations in the form of violence, intimidation, hate speech, threats, abductions and brutality were in shared first place with cases of economic destabilisation, or efforts to entrench corrupt practices, with 23 articles (23.0% of total each).

In March 2011, logging of media reports relating to violence seem to suggest that reports of violence are decreasing, but one must be cautious to assume this means that levels of intimidation and violence in areas not covered by the press . In the month of March, the number of media articles collected and catalogued for the Zimbabwe Inclusive Government (ZIG) Watch dropped from 132 to 123. Each recorded article signifies a unique breach of the terms set out in the GPA. By categorising these articles according to the nature of the breach, we have generated representative statistics.

Over two years since the inclusive government was formed, political unease and sporadic violence seem unending. The intimidation and violence which characterised the Constitutional Outreach process has been followed by an increase in political tensions with talk of a 2011 election. Zanu PF, a highly organised party with national reach seems to be preparing for a win at all costs. Increased violence, threats and coercion directed against the rural electorate primarily with the message that anything but a Zanu PF win will result in death for opposition supporters.

Due to the December festive season, this issue sees a reduction in 18% of the number of articles captured as compared to November, resulting in 87 media articles being catalogued for this edition of the ZIG Watch. The festive season and the Zanu PF Congress held in December resulted in a drop of recorded breaches. Each recorded article signifies a unique breach of the terms set out in the Global Political Agreement (GPA). By categorising these articles according to the nature of breach, we generate representative statistics.

The trend of violations continues with intimidation, hate speech and violence taking first place with 24 articles (27.6%). Shared second place continues to go to cases of corruption, or efforts to entrench corrupt practices, and legal harassment, with 15 articles each (17.2% of the total, each). Restrictions to freedom of speech came fourth with 12 articles (13.8% of the total). These four significant breaches accounted for 75.9% of the total analysed.

Within these categories, Zanu-PF are accountable for 98.5% of the breaches. Overall, Zanu-PF were either responsible for, or involved in, 97.7% of all breaches recorded. Of all the breaches recorded, 28.2% of those breaches involved preparations by Zanu-PF for control and manipulation of a possible election in 2011, with 50.0% involving violence and or intimidation.