“Circular Reference Warning”

I have to confess that this, a Microsoft Excel error warning, was the first thing that came to my mind when I read of a Cabinet chaired by Mugabe, with Tsvangirai as Vice-Chair and a Committee chaired by Morgan Tsvangirai and MT advising Mugabe etc etc. I know these warnings quite well: I’m often found swearing at my screen while battling with a convoluted spreadsheet. Click on the image to enlarge.

For those who don’t use Excel, here’s a screenshot of the sort of thing it takes to make a warning like this appear. The formula in Cell A1 depends on an answer from Cell B1 to resolve the equation and provide an answer. Unfortunately, Cell B1 needs an answer from Cell A1 before it can resolve its equation. Result: there is no answer and you get a big dialogue box on your screen basically telling you to think again.

Whether or not the deal results in a government that constantly needs to face these warnings and think again and again and again depends, I guess, on the small detail of the agreement, which we will only learn about on Monday.

I’m afraid that my bare bones feeling of whether this could work also depends on Robert Mugabe and JOC.

One of Mugabe’s most consistent and reliable traits is that he has no qualms whatsoever about violating the letter of the law, of making promises and then simply refusing to keep them or – worse – publicly claiming he is keeping them when he is patently not. Whenever he claims he is working in line with the law he  puts SADC on the spot. He essentially dares regional leaders to call him a liar to his face, and SADC has a hard time doing that to a person who wears a coat with the words  ‘liberation hero’ on the back. The defiant , belligerent Mugabe inevitably carries on as normal, much to the world’s disbelief, while Zimbabweans are outraged at the farce before us, aghast that SADC would impotently sustain a charade.

There is one thing I am sure of: Mugabe’s capacity for duplicity, deception and double-speak knows no bounds.

My personal observation of him too is that when the chips are down he retreats: things seem to go momentarily quiet – a lull before the storm – while he takes time out to reflect on the situation, then comes back with something shocking and surprising and working entirely to his advantage.

It is during those lulls that some amongst us start to feel that maybe, just maybe, this time we have the advantage. To date, the quiet times have always ended with the snake suddenly rearing back up and viciously striking again; those of us who were daring to dream in those moments are made to look  like naive, bumbling puppies.

If I sound jaded and cautious and very wary it is because this bumbling puppy that signs its name ‘Hope’ on this blog is a little tired of being spat at by the snakes who have controlled and destroyed our country. When democracy was destroyed in Zimbabwe, ‘Trust’ died a painful death next to it.

I can’t help reflecting on the fact that this deal emerged from another agreement which we all hoped signified Zanu PF making some concessions and relenting on their awful ways of clinging to power. The Memorandum of Understanding had a number of conditions attached, and yet, even while the talks took place, people were being beaten and elected MPs were spuriously arrested as recently as a couple of weeks ago. Most shockingly, Aid agencies were only allowed to resume feeding the starving people last week, and we soon learned that strings were attached there too. It seems to me that if Mugabe and JOC genuinely had the best interests of the people of our country at heart, they would have done all they could to ensure people could eat; but they didn’t, at least, not until they really, really had to. I am not reassured by their track record.

All of this leads me to think that the deal is something Mugabe has reluctantly signed because he had no choices, at this stage, or because he has another plan up his sleeve.

Yesterday, while I was waiting for news of the deal to come through, I noticed that the EU was planning to strengthen sanctions today, Friday. They’ve since backed off after the deal was announced. I also saw that Zimbabwejournalists.com had an article yesterday saying that even die-hard loyalists were beginning to express displeasure with the government:

The traditional leaders appeared uncharacteristically frank in their remarks at the four-day conference, which started on Tuesday.

Mugabe officially opened the conference earlier today.

They complained of rampant corruption, involving senior politicians, the army, police and civil servants in the distribution of maize and farm implements.

One chief even jolted the Deputy Minister of Agriculture David Chapfika, telling him that the rosy report on food imports and distribution that the minister had made to the gathering was not reflective of the dire hunger stalking the rural folk.

“You are not going to the ground to see the situation there,” Chief Chiweshe, from Mashonaland East told the visibly shaken deputy minister.

“You are not going to the Grain Marketing Board depots to see what is happening there. If you were, you would not be reading that speech which was written for you, because it’s very different from what is happening on the ground.”

Chiefs are generally seen as pro-government, but this time around, they apparently chose to be honest about the hunger that is most visible in the countryside.

Today, news of the deal appears in The Herald, Mugabe’s government mouthpiece,  and this paper extensively quotes Mbeki’s announcement of the deal. Right at the start of the article it focuses on one aspect in particular:

President Mbeki urged the international community to respect the agreement as it represented the wishes of the people of Zimbabwe.

This is what Mbeki said:

“We hope that everybody in the international community will respect this agreement, lend their support and extend the necessary hand of support for the country to recover from its socio-economic challenges.

“We are confident that our friends will respond so that this political agreement succeeds. All the parties are motivated by the desire to find a solution to the economic challenges.

It has always been a fact that the economy has been Mugabe’s worst enemy and I feel sure it is this that has backed him into an agreement more than a desire to have democracy and the people at the heart of the deal (which we have been told they are). I am wondering though, whether he has grudgingly conceded an inch because he hopes to force the international community to step forward with a mile.

Has the snake coiled back into a shady spot now to wait and watch?

The ‘winner’ in all this is really Thabo Mbeki. He can now say that despite all the criticism he has achieved a deal. Does it matter to him if the deal actually turns out to be a ‘no deal’,  a ‘circular reference’ going nowhere aimlessly? In the long years Mbeki has been mediating we have seen elections stolen, people killed, homes destroyed, poverty deepen and widen, and our people crawling through wire fences seeking livelihoods and sanctuary in foreign countries. He may have secured a deal, and this may be seen as a political success and may be notched in his presidential legacy as such; but he can’t claim, as far as I am concerned, to have successfully achieved much for the people of our country over the years.

Coltart titled his bare bones outline as “The end of the beginning”. I hope so! I really hope that this marks a milestone on the journey and what we see is something different and new. I hope this doesn’t turn out to simply be a historical marker that identifies ‘the beginning of more of the same’.

I have always felt that the battle against the forces of injustice and evil in our country required the skills of an endurance marathon runner rather than a sprinter. I’ll be taking time out this weekend to carbo-load rather than knock myself senseless with a hangover from partying. I think we need to remain vigilant, and still keep our eyes firmly on the goal we strive for for our country – democracy, freedom, justice. The goal, for me, is still very much a dream. I might have glimpsed it once or twice in the very far distance recently, but I haven’t yet found a tool long enough to grasp it.

Real democracy and freedom and lasting peace is the goal. We’re not there yet.

This entry was posted by Hope on Friday, September 12th, 2008 at 3:52 pm. You can follow any comments on this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.