A closer look at by-elections in Zimbabwe
July 25th, 2009
Map showing looming by-elections, and potential by-elections
The map above illustrates constituencies where seats are exposed to by-elections as a result of MP deaths and MP convictions. One seat that has fallen vacant is due to Lovemore Moyo becoming Speaker.
In addition to this, there are nine other seats which are currently under threat because of MPs awaiting trail. Two of these nine seats are held by Zanu PF, and three of the deaths were also Zanu PF seats. This means the MDC-T potentially faces 12 by-elections (assuming those awaiting trial are convicted and lose their appeals and imprisoned for more than six months) and ZanuPF potentially faces five by-elections, under the same terms. This means the overwhelming majority of seats which are exposed to by-elections are held by MDC-T, seriously threatening their parliamentary majority.
As we note at the end of this blog, Robert Mugabe is charged with calling the by-elections, and the longer he delays calling the elections, the closer we come to the end of the one year agreement where the three main parties agreed to not field candidates against each other.
Deaths/Changes:
Gokwe-Gumunyu: death of Ephrem Mushoriwa (ZANU-PF)- majority 2945
Matobo North: seat vacated by Lovemore Moyo (Speaker – MDC) – majority 474
Guruve North: death of Cletus Mabaranga (ZANU-PF) – majority 6496
Bindura North: death of Eliot Manyika (ZANU-PF) – majority 8975
Convicted, and under appeal:
Zaka North: Ernest Mudavanhu (MDC MT) convicted on charges of abusing subsidised farming inputs – sentenced to 12 months in prison – majority 3366
Chipinge South: Meki Makuyana (MDC MT) convicted of kidnapping a minor – sentenced to 12 months with hard labour – majority 3163
Mutare West: Shuah Mudiwa (MDC MT) convicted of kidnapping a minor – sentenced to 7 years in prison – majority 22
Chipinge East: Mathias Mlambo (MDC MT) convicted of inciting public violence – sentenced to 10 months – majority 2872
Chimanimani West: Lynette Karenyi convicted of allegedly forging her nomination papers – fined – majority 1446*
On Trial:
Mutasa Central: Trevor Saruwaka (MDDC MT) pending trial for kidnapping a minor – majority 4483
Kwekwe Central: Blessing Chebundo (MDC MT) arrested on a charge of rape and on bail awaiting trial – majority 2581
Dzivarasekwa: Evelyn Masaiti (MDC MT) pending trial for abusing subsidised farming inputs – majority 3605
Bikita West: Heya Shoko (MDC MT) pending trial for abusing subsidised farming inputs – majority 19
Masvingo West: Tachiona Mharadza (MDC MT) pending trial for abusing subsidised farming inputs – majority 392
Chivi North: Tranos Huruba (ZANU PF) pending trial for abusing subsidised farming inputs – majority 1949
Chivi South: Irvin Dzingirayi (ZANU PF) pending trial for abusing subsidised farming inputs – majority 3544
Gutu East: Ransome Makamure (MDC MT) pending trial for abusing subsidised farming inputs – majority 989
Gutu North: Hamandishe Maramwidze (MDC MT) pending trial for abusing subsidised farming inputs – majority 702
*NB: Lynette Karenyi, MP for Chimanimani West’s case is slightly different because she was fined, not jailed. However her right to the seat is being challenged in a High Court civil case by her March 2008 ZANU-PF opponent, on the basis of her conviction for involvement in the forgery of a nominator’s signature on her nomination paper [the sentence imposed was insufficient to trigger section 42 of the Constitution]. So although the sentence did not result in a by-election, her opponent is still using the outcome of trial to push for a by-election.
Further, those convicted MPs that win their appeals will obviously be reinstated as an MP for their constituency.
Last month we blogged an alert circulated by Veritas titled MDC-T Parliamentary Seats Under Threat in which Veritas pointed out that:
An MP or Senator convicted of an offence and sentenced to six months or more imprisonment is immediately suspended from Parliament and will eventually lose his or her seat unless the sentence is reduced or set aside on appeal [Constitution, section 42]. Consequently, the seat of any legislator accused of a serious offence must be regarded as under threat.
In a Bill Watch Special Issue on 17th May, Veritas note that:
It is frequently assumed that the IPA lays down that there will be no by-elections until after 15th September [twelve months after the signing of the IPA]. That is incorrect. The IPA states that during those twelve months “should any electoral vacancy arise in respect of a local authority or parliamentary seat, for whatever reason, only the party holding that seat prior to the vacancy occurring shall be entitled to nominate and field a candidate to fill the seat subject to that party complying with the rules governing its internal democracy” [IPA, Article 21.1]. In other words, the three parties agree not to stand against each other in by-elections – but this cannot prevent other parties or independent candidates from exercising their legal right to contest by-elections under the Electoral Act and the Constitution.
Read the full text of Article 21 on the Sokwanele website here.
In Bill Watch 20, Veritas note that some of the by-elections date back to 2008 and that these are very delayed:
These are long overdue – under section 39 of the Electoral Act a by-election proclamation must be gazetted within 14 days of the President receiving notification of a vacancy. Parliament has stated that all vacancies were promptly notified to the President’s Office. A recent newspaper report stated that it was up to ZEC to set the by-election procedure in motion, but that is not so. ZEC has to wait for the proclamations to be gazetted by the President . [Note: This is not a matter in which the President is free to act as he thinks fit; he must act in accordance with Cabinet advice. So the inclusive government as a whole is responsible for these inordinate delays.]
Bill Watch 20 explore the possible reasons for the delays our emphasis added:
Why These Delays in Holding By-Elections?
The Government has put forward no satisfactory explanation for its failure to call the by-elections – in spite of the fact that this has left the constituencies concerned without representation in Parliament for many months, in breach of the Electoral Act and of the constitutional rights of the voters in those constituencies. The law is absolutely clear that these vacancies should have been filled. If the Electoral Act’s requirements for calling by-elections are not complied with, the High Court can order compliance, provided an interested party takes the trouble to go to court; that happened in Bulawayo last year when a by-election was unduly delayed.
There is a worry that waiting for the vacancies resulting from existing MPs being appointed as new provincial governors [end of August, see below] will be another reason put forward for further delays. If by-elections are delayed till mid-September, this would raise the spectre of election violence. The IPA tried to put a moratorium of 12 months on election violence. In Article 21 the three parties declared their awareness of the “divisive and often times confrontational nature of elections and by-elections”, noted the need to allow the IPA to take root amongst the parties and the people, and recognized the need to give people breathing space and a healing period. They accordingly agreed that for a period of 12 months from the signing of the IPA [which period expires on 15th September] should any electoral vacancy arise, “only the party holding that seat prior to the vacancy occurring shall be entitled to nominate and field a candidate to fill the seat”. [Note: this does not rule out by-elections, it is merely an agreement that the three parties will not field candidates against each other – only the party previously holding the seat will field a candidate.]
Another reason why by-elections should be held promptly is that the MDC majority in the House of Assembly is very tenuous and it has already been reduced. The nearer the MDCs come to losing their majority and ZANU-PF to gaining a majority, the more violent by-elections are likely to be if postponed. The by-elections should be held now while there is a moratorium on the three parties of the IPA competing against each other.
The one-year specified, expiring on the 15th September 2009, is less than two months away.
July 25th, 2009 21:02
certainly a growing list which could shift the balance of power significantly. Some are with very low majorities. MDC better watch out for in increase and violence and intimidation..already I am fearful. Do they have an structures left in these rural areas anymore?
July 26th, 2009 00:05
All these ‘criminals’ and they only got sworn in five months ago? Hard to believe. Zanu PF are plotting.
July 26th, 2009 15:26
I must admit that I don’t fully understand this post and what all the dangers are. But I ask this, why can’t those nations providing credit and aid to Zimbabwe state that this aid will stop the moment Zanu-PF begins again with violence and criminal interference in the democratic process, and that all elections must be acknowledged to be free and fairly held?
July 26th, 2009 16:29
@True Grit – The by-elections threaten the MDCs majority which was secured last year in the March 29th elections. An MP convicted of a crime and sentenced to more than 6 months in jail loses their seat and that triggers a by-election. If Zanu PF win enough by-elections (by violence or otherwise), they regain control of parliament. The large number of arrests suggest a strategy to use the legal system as a tool for political control (it is often used in this way). The justice system is still hopelessly biased towards the Zanu PF regime, so it is unlikely that those who are a political threat to the junta will receive a fair trial, and it is questionable whether many of them should have been arrested in the first place. We will be doing more work on this issue in following weeks because it is a critical one. It is a way those who are opposed to democractic change can manage to overturn the will of the people using dirty tricks.
July 26th, 2009 19:04
@Sokwanele
Many thanks for your clear explanation. It is indeed a trying time for Opposition members. As you say, a critical issue.
July 27th, 2009 16:35
The moment aid stops the people die. tha will not in any way afeect the desensitised and insensitive President who will most probablyy blae it on the west. If i was an aid provider, I would turn a blind eye to the politics, and for the sake of saving lives, I would provide aid to tttthose who need it.
July 28th, 2009 09:28
Mr Edotor, Sir, I still need to understand this one thing; could this be a true thing that MDC Mps being tried for abuse of subsidised farming inputs and abductions/kidnapping are more than the Zanu PF ones…? Some truth is bieng concealed somewhere..all i know is the Creator of heavens and earth is sees everything.
July 29th, 2009 15:10
Where is MDC while all this is happening,I think its high time Tsvangirai and his team wake up and smell the cofee,can’t they see that this is a planned thing with ZANU PF.Sooner or later MDC is going to be vanished.Pliz mwana wevhu rise up!We are tired of mugabe and his allies.