‘No news is good news’ – not true in Zimbabwe

When elections are over, and the media isn’t being flooded with images of violently battered bodies, things feel like they go quiet in Zimbabwe. The power-sharing government provides a shelter from the storm of doubts and misgivings that most Zimbabweans have, even when it is quiet. We are willing to believe that because the good guys are occupying some of the seats of power, that it can’t possibly be as bad as it was before. Food is back on city shelves, tangible evidence giving truth to the faint hope that we’re well on the road to recovery.

But are we? Frankly, I’m feeling scared again.

We’ve blogged many times about the police and roadblocks in Zimbabwe (e.g. here, here and here), the way the police manning these rickety structures use them as a tool for extortion – a way to earn an alternative income, by bribing tired travellers and threatening them with delays and possible arrest: all that hassle can be averted with few crisp Rands. But IRIN reported on a much more sinister aspect of the police recently:

A serving Zimbabwe National Army officer, who declined to be identified, told IRIN that junior soldiers and police officers were being driven to crime by desperation, as they suffered the same economic hardships as most of the population. However, unlike non-uniformed Zimbabweans – 94 percent of whom are thought to be unemployed – soldiers and police, like all public servants, enjoy a US$100 monthly wage.

“They have observed how senior security officers drive luxury cars, get free fuel for their multiple farms, and other benefits. Soldiers and police officers have no other skills which they can use to raise extra money – all they can do is to use guns, but when they get used to that lifestyle, they can easily become warlords,” the army officer said.

“From a security point of view, what this means is there are underground armies, which can even be a danger to national security because nobody knows how many there are, and how many weapons are in their hands,” he commented. [Link]

It’s a scary reminder for those of us who look at the shelves in the shop, heave an internal sigh of relief because the product we travelled for, burning valuable fuel to get there, is actually on the shelf and fortunately the purse has just enough Rands needed to buy it. All very well for the few to be able to reach up and buy the product, but what happens when the majority, who also want to buy that product, who a few months ago were filled with optimism that they too would be able to afford it if they gave the new government a chance, are slowly becoming disenchanted and angry and frustrated. Where do the angry turn to now?

Before, the anger was quite rightfully against the regime who took us down this road to nothingness and hunger. All hopes for the future pinned on the two MDC formations. But if the MDCs are now in power, and the majority perceive that nothing has changed; what next? Is it likely, as the IRIN article points out, that those who can take power into their own hands will?

I wrote a few days ago about the incredible finding by Foreign Policy magazine and The Fund for Peace that Zimbabwe is the second most  failed state in the world – after Somalia. I flippantly quipped about the way we see media footage of the Somali warlords’ foot-soldiers shooting from the hip and spraying bullets crazily and lethally all around them, with no thought for collateral damage.  I re-play that image in the context of the IRIN article, and this time picture it happening outside a Chicken Inn, or a TM supermarket, or down a road lined with jacarandas in bloom. Those potential images break my heart and fill me with unease and uncertainty.

IRIN had another article yesterday, this one pointing to growing political violence in the rural areas and recounts the experience of Katiyo, who we wrote about a few days ago, and goes on to cite a senior MDC-T official:

Morgan Komichi, a senior MDC official involved in rural organization, told IRIN that ZANU-PF violence was increasing as the party went about shoring up its support ahead of the elections expected to take place once a new constitution has been agreed.

“What is happening is that ZANU-PF is rolling out its machinery of violence in order to intimidate the population ahead of the constitution making-process; it is a constitutional battle,” Komichi said.

“Mugabe has said he wants the new constitution to be based on a draft … crafted during the inter-party negotiations [which led to the formation of the unity government], while the MDC is for a people-driven process,” he commented.

“The reports of violence that we are receiving at our offices are extremely shocking and barbaric. MDC supporters are being axed, while in some instances members of the military are viciously assaulting our members. ZANU-PF is now actively pushing the agenda of national healing so that perpetrators of violence find an escape, so that they don’t [have to] account for their actions.” [Link]

Sokwanele has been involved with monitoring projects since 2004. In 2004 and 2007 we spent months leading up to the elections in 2005 and 2008 flagging to SADC over and over again the complete contempt that the Zanu PF government had for the regional standards and guidelines governing elections in the SADC area. Now that there is a power-sharing government, we are laboriously monitoring compliance with the Global Political Agreement. Underneath these projects is the underlying belief that elections are a process, not a one-day event. The same goes for the new power-sharing government where moving towards change will be a process.

So the same is also true for those in Zanu PF who do not want to see change happen, where hanging onto power is also a process, something that has to be worked at – each positive development patiently whittled away and returned to autocracy.

This power-sharing government is a set-back for those democracy-fearing people, but not one they plan to allow to stay forever. So the constitution process is a threat, just as elections are a threat. They want the people to support the Kariba draft, but why bother to win their support by going for heart and minds through debate when they believe – as Zanu PF has always believed in the past – that the most direct route comes via the barrel of a gun or at the end of stick or axe handle wielded by a crazed goon who hopes to get some kind of reward for his violent efforts?

On the weekend we blogged a map of by-elections. Elections: more of those special days that give us both incredible hope but also make our blood vessels thrum with fear. My colleague said to me dryly after he saw the map, “… and Zanu PF ALWAYS wins by-elections”.  I don’t have the stats to hand to know if this is totally true, but it is true to say that those who have to suffer through by-elections, the electorate I mean, can expect to see the massive Zanu PF violence machinery visited on one small teeny-weeny area. My heart goes out to those in those areas; how unbearable it must be to know the full force of terror is probably about to be unleashed in your neighbourhood.

Finally, to add the glossy cherry on top of my mounting unease, I saw an article reported in my daily zwnews mailing this weekend which pointed out the following about the trials underpinning the by-election map:

So far, five MDC MPs have been convicted of and sentenced to more than six months in prison for a variety of “crimes” – which is the minimum sentence that allows them to be thrown out of parliament. All have appealed against their convictions but appeals can take forever, so while they may have won freedom on bail, their exclusion from the house of assembly reduces the MDC’s tiny majority won in last year’s elections. Two MPs have already been expelled and when parliament sits again, it is almost certain that the other three will also be barred. And despite a legal challenge by Zimbabwe Lawyers’ for Human Rights, most legal opinion holds that the Zanu PF-aligned clerk of parliament, Austin Zvoma, will be within his rights to deny them entry. Most of these trials took place a six-hour drive or further from Harare and were not covered by journalists because of the staggering costs of reporting in Zimbabwe. Frustrating efforts to piece together the circumstances of these “trials” via a fractured and expensive cellphone service suggest that Tomana has a crew of prosecutors working industriously in outlying areas to prosecute MDC MPs. [emphasis added]

If the trials cannot be covered by the few journalists who operate independently and carry the full weight of responsibility for impartial and neutral reporting, how can we possibly know how much is happening in the rural areas?

One thing is for sure, to assume that “no news is good news” in Zimbabwe is catastrophically short-sighted.

Despite the lack of news, history and experience have to warn us to prepare for the worst and to assume the worst. So this is why I feel a deep creeping unease; why the hairs on the back of my neck are standing up again, and why I feel I need to run through mental check-lists: are we ready for this, can we cope, will this next storm be one we can get through? When I’m in this state of mind, the waiting before hell breaks loose is unbearable.

This entry was posted by Hope on Tuesday, July 28th, 2009 at 1:27 pm. You can follow any comments on this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a comment, or trackback from your own site.