Zimbabwe Election Watch : Issue 17
Executive Summary
In an opinion piece titled “Mugabe’s Rigging Nightmare”, political commentator John Makumbe from the University of Zimbabwe points out he has “consistently insisted that Mugabe and Zanu PF have always rigged the elections in order to ‘win’ and retain power since 1985.”
This has been confirmed by comprehensive reports and analyses of the regime’s election rigging modus operandi compiled by civil society organisations and the opposition. Zimbabwe Election Watch (ZEW), first published in October 2004 prior to the March 2005 Parliamentary election, supports these documents by highlighting examples of violations to the SADC Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections.
A glance at early ZEW story headlines reveals the consistency of the regime’s strategy: Food as a Political Weapon, Arrest of Journalists, Student Leader Battles for Life After Savage Attack, Youths Harass Electorate, Repressive New Laws, Proposal to Exclude Some Observers, Non-Residents Excluded From Voting, Police Brainwashed.
This time around, however, Makumbe says Mugabe may find it rather hard to rig the actual elections for a number of reasons. Firstly, “Mugabe and his crumbling party don’t really know who their friends and foes are in this power game come March 29… (and) who among the persons responsible for the rigging machinery are loyal to Mugabe or to Makoni or to Tsvangirai (the three main presidential candidates) …
“Secondly, the Electoral Act provides that, ‘where two or more candidates are nominated and no candidate receives a majority of the total number of valid votes cast, a second election’ must be held within 21 days after the previous election… In the forthcoming election, with three rather strong candidates, the possibility of all the candidates obtaining less than the requisite 51% or higher cannot be ruled out…”
Debating the same scenario, a leading Zimbabwean journalist, Dumisani Muleya, writes that, if Mugabe is forced into a run-off, it would almost certainly give his rival unstoppable momentum, and it is widely held he is unlikely to win 51% of the vote.
The entrance of Zimbabwean businessman and former Zanu PF finance minister Dr Simba Makoni into the equation is “a leap that is a lot bigger than people outside Zimbabwe may appreciate – from the heart of the pernicious Zanu PF politburo into a political showdown with President Mugabe. Mugabe is a dangerous opponent,” writes Diana Games, director of research and publishing company Africa @ Work.
Moeletsi Mbeki, deputy chairperson of the South African Institute of International Affairs, notes that “the rise of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change party (MDC) illustrated more than anything to date the arrival of the African Renaissance. Twenty years after independence in 1980, Zimbabwe had become a transformed society with a rich and complex social structure… In this fast changing and dynamic environment it was the ruling party, Zanu PF that remained unchanged. In fact, the opposite had happened, it had fossilised.”
With the elections only five weeks away, media attention is escalating rapidly. In this issue we’ve touched on a broad selection of stories which can be accessed via the links provided.
Once again the Mugabe regime has splashed out scarce foreign currency to import tear-gas and other anti-riot material from China. In 2002 his shopping list included anti-riot tanks, gas masks and microscopic laser guns.
The regime’s onslaught on all forms of opposition has been relentless and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who was appallingly beaten in March, has been a primary target. At this point however, Mugabe’s vitriol is being directed at Dr Makoni.
2007 has been the worst year yet for defenders of freedom with more than 6 000 instances of human rights abuses recorded by Zimbabwean NGOs. Once again members of the Progressive Teachers’ Union have been severely beaten up.
Civic groups, notably the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, report serious problems with respect to critical electoral processes, including voter registration and the delimitation of constituencies. Voter education is totally inadequate and the voters’ roll is in a shambles.
There has been no let-up in the slanted coverage of the electoral campaign by the public broadcaster. The opposition still has virtually no access the state media and a number of independent newspapers remain outlawed, notably the Daily News. Journalists from “hostile” Western nations will reportedly not be accredited.
Corruption remains rife and senior police officers have been given new luxury vehicles – with more perks promised – in exchange for their support. Conversely, flood victims who support the opposition are being denied food aid. MDC ‘Freedom Marches’ have been brutally disrupted or banned.
Read the full article on our website here. This includes a detailed breakdown of all breaches and provides links to information sources. Subscribe to our mailing list to receive our articles by email.
