This time last week we voted for freedom
… and a week later we know we got it, but we’re waiting for the ‘official’ confirmation. I have to put the word ‘official’ in quote marks because anything ‘official’ coming out of the Zimbabwean government is usually a pack of lies and designed to prop up a certain old man.
I just learned that the MDC’s attempt to go to court to force ZEC to announce the result we are all waiting to hear was thwarted by armed police:
Armed police in Zimbabwe have prevented lawyers from the opposition MDC from entering the high court to file a petition on the presidential election (BBC)
I have only just learned this because I finally fell asleep and slept solidly for hours. As much as I needed the rest, I woke up with a stomach lurching jolt not knowing if my world had been turned upside down or not in the time I was unconscious (I lay there in my bed still feeling half-zonked out thinking that things are so bizarre and surreal - this calm but uncalm state we’re in - that if I opened the curtains to see an army of martians wearing 5 Brigade red berets on my front lawn it probably wouldn’t surprise me).
An sms from a friend told me that it wasn’t armed police at the court but Bob’s people - CIO type people. If this is true then it is good to think that the circle around him might be thinning and he has to turn to his closest and most trusted people for protection. I hope that circle thins even more.
But the detail of that doesn’t matter a great deal. What I hope the world is noticing and keeping in mind is that the delay in releasing results speaks volumes, and attempts to prolong the delay says even more.
I know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the opposition won this election. This was also true for 2005, 2002, and 2000, frankly. The numbers ZEC are releasing are close and people keep talking about how close this contest is. The implicit suggestion is that Bob is nearly as electable as Morgan Tsvangirai. That’s a complete nonsense. Bob wouldn’t stand a chance in a free and fair election and he knows that.
What isn’t being factored into this discussion too much is the fact that the rigging that went on for months and months before. I will write a post on this later to explain further, but trust me, the election playing field is Zimbabwe is so heavily and sickeningly skewed in favour of Bob its unreal. The fact that the ‘official’ results are ‘close’ in truth indicates a massive tidalwave of votes away from Zanu PF. Go have a look at our map which carries a small sample of things that went on in the months before to see what I mean.
In my opinion, what happened here is Bob didn’t rig enough to secure the ‘victory’ for himself. He didn’t bash enough people, he didn’t bribe enough people, he didn’t prevent enough people from getting through the polling station door, and he wasn’t able to cram enough false votes into the boxes in the way he usually does.
I think part of the reason he may have slightly held back on the day itself, is because he craves and needs a victory that he can try and convince the world is legitimate.
The other thing I think is that his antics last year sickened everyone, African nations included, and I would like to believe that tolerance for the things he has got away with in the past - outright murder and unspeakable violence - is beginning to wear thin even among those nations that previously turned a blind eye to his abuses. Last year the world clearly saw what Zimbabweans already know about Mugabe. He looked like an uncivilised brutish barbarian, and I wonder if it wasn’t a step too far that he now has to try and draw back from. (See here, here and here.)
The country is dying by the day - because of things he and his government have done - but the fact is they cannot fix it without outside help. That help is not forthcoming from a world that doesn’t trust him anymore.
That tightrope he walks between rigging enough to win, but not so much people think he’s a murdering thief and fraud, is becoming harder and harder and harder for him to accomplish. It’s made even more and more difficult for him by the fact that the population are getting hungrier and poorer and sicker and more desperate for change every single day.
So he rigged and bashed and threatened in the months before, in the days when the world’s media was focussed elsewhere, but it appears that he didn’t do enough. He’s in a vice, really, and escape route options are being closed off everywhere he turns. That’s more or less along the lines of what I think we’re witnessing at the moment. (None of this means that I think he will stop fighting though; that’s not in his nature at all: he is rabid and ruthless when he feels he needs to be.)
The on-going delay in the results looks to me like a sign of shock and disbelief from him. The thoughts going through his mind are probably along the lines of, ‘How the hell did this happen?’ I imagine a bunch of people probably got a serious shouting-at for not doing a good enough job. I think Bob thought he had it in the bag - all rigged and wrapped up and ready to present to the nation.
But he hasn’t. Sitting alone, isolated in his palace and surrounded by ‘yes-men’ who are enjoying the ride on his gravy-train, he has fatally underestimated just how much the people want him to go. And as the days go on he looks less and less confident; less and less a ‘winner’ (albeit a lying cheating ‘winner’), and more and more like someone scheming to try and find a way out of the corner he is backed into.
For example, Mugabe has in the past relished presenting his ‘victory’ to the nation. I really feel that if Bob had had this election rigged enough to allow him to walk that walk, we would have seen him strutting his stuff on TV several days ago. We would have been subjected to the same brain-draining boring speeches about the evils of the British and how through his victory he has defeated imperialism again and blah blah blah all over again. But we haven’t.
The other thing that convinces me that he is wriggling like a worm on a hook is today’s news: why, if he has nothing to fear, would he or anyone - his supporters even - try to stop the MDC from going to court to get ZEC to release the results?
Surely they would be as keen as anyone else, if they believed in their hearts that Mugabe had won, for ZEC to announce that result?
It suggests to me that it isn’t just the opposition who think the opposition have won, but Mugabe’s diminishing pool of supporters appear to think so too.
April 5th, 2008 17:03
just read your article and we have prayed for years in the UK that changes would come before there is nothing left you have to be so close now lets hope Mr Mugabe could decide to hold his head up high and just leave his people to get on and live a life with food for their families thats not much to ask from your leader
I was told that he has a castle in Scotlant dont know how true this is but is suppose to be worth a fortune thats been old news here???
Did you know that Mugabe spelt backwords is an old yorkshire expressions of E BA GUM
bye from UK
April 5th, 2008 17:23
This is surely one of those occasions in which the imagination is baffled by the facts.
April 5th, 2008 17:24
You are right on. The circles are thinning around him, with the close, well-paid CIO types remain to do the dirty work. I saw an article reporting police hunger. They hunger for food and for change.
One suggestion might be to take advantage and do 12 things at once around the country for one hour. They might be able to respond to one of those, but the other 11 go unchecked. They are barely anywhere, so they can’t be everywhere. Blocking the court this morning is probably the one thing they were capable of focusing on. Here the principle of action and not waiting for reaction could be useful. But not usual Zimbabwe bold action — march down the street until beaten. Times call for a little more evasive action.
I connect the country dying with the thinning circles: If the country is dying, the regime is fading faster.
There was a call a week ago to not do anything illegal, to not help government commit a crime, to not steal elections, to not do anything wrong. To not do anything you won’t be proud of in the very near future. That’s still a valid call.
To those who have remaining strength, act. To those who understandably do not have remaining strength, fail to act. Watching and wishing you all the gift of wisdom!
April 5th, 2008 17:29
Epitaph:
There was an old fool in Harare
Who stashed stolen cash and Ferraris
But when he got caught
All his plotting for naught
He rotted in **** with his sorries
April 5th, 2008 17:31
Yes, it is good news that the “policeman” wasn’t ZRP. Masipula Sithole used to point out that he has had to rely on irregulars and side units because the professional services have their limits. We must remember that internally they will be having their debates too!
Mbeki was at at the same conference as Brown outside London today and has published a Wait:everyone agreed to a runoff statement. I was disappointed as MDC had already been turned away from the HC.
Thanks so much for posting. Is the prayer “chain” going ahead? I tried to map world times on my blog but wordpress took this moment to overhaul its system and nothing much is working.
April 5th, 2008 17:36
Thank you for the update on the situation in Zimbabwe. As an Ethiopian, I know what it means to live under a rotten and corrupt system….Best wishes to Zimbabwe and her children!
April 5th, 2008 17:37
Meanwhile, results show that the MDC and Zanu-Pf each won 30 seats in elections for the largely ceremonial senate upper house of parliament.
April 5th, 2008 17:38
Please can all the opposition and Ngos, NCA, Save Zimbabwe Coalition etc get together in Harare and work together, maybe hold a press conference. Something needs to be done collectively. Mbeki has just said no international assistance is needed yet… why doesn’t he want the UN to step in like they did in Kenya BUT BEFORE there is violence? Who is Mbeki to say no when Zimbabwe’s new leader has called for assistance?
April 5th, 2008 17:50
A dispassionate analysis shows a weak, frantic Mugabe pulling levers like the wizard of Oz in a fake demonstration of power.
He won’t show electoral results because these are in fact Mugabe’s “rejectoral results.”
It is not up to a party clique to call for a second round, as some media reported. This decrepit group of liberation relics chose their relic candidate — a bizarre drama from the court jester, considering that the loser of round 1 goes to round 2, should a second round be determined by the rejectoral results.
Why did he choose the politburo? Not because he’s strong, but weak — one of the last institutions to reliably carries out his will.
After a career of violence and macho fist-pumping, to see Mugabe so afraid! of a war, an air force, and invader? No, of numbers on paper! Simple numbers show that nobody cares about him anymore, that he is irrelevant, that he is the past, that yes, he CAN be buried in Heroes Acre now that he has been buried by public opinion.
He’s too afraid to show his numbers, a fading despot that treats his nighttime prescriptions as a state secret equal to his rejectoral numbers. Only the worst sort of self-centeredness prevents a man from going on TV and sayin, “I lost, congratulations.” Boxers usually hug at the end. This is not sporting behavior. These are the maneuvers of a coward.
Mugabe is a paper tiger afraid of paper, of numbers that number his days, of the overwhelming rejection by Zimbabweans that show they don’t want to go along in remote control following his will.
On Friday, slobs pretending to be war veterans were hung out by Mugabe like worms on a hook for Zimbabweans to attack. The story is not their intimidation. Rather, a disciplined, peaceful people did not take the bait. That’s remarkable. Somebody yelled out to the worms that they smelled of old fish and Grace Mubage perfume.
Now, can somebody provide these remarkable, patient, peaceful, determined people with what to do to replace remote control habit? Is there an alternative where they can safely display their displeasure without giving Mugabe an excuse to start the flow of blood?
Expect more provocations from the liberation relic; responsible reaction from people in a set of clever actions that retake the initiative.
It may be easier than imagined to shadow box the fading despot who pumps his fist a minute a day and calls it a boxing match.
He claims a knockout punch but misuses people to deliver his violence. He campaigns on land but has left it barren. He campaigns on sovereignty while millions move to functioning countries. Give the red card to the man in Italian socks who claims through the dull Bright Matonga he wants extra time.
April 5th, 2008 18:12
Mbkei reputedly claimed that Zimbabwe is not a part of South Africa and so why should he be questioned on events there. I am not sure if this is true, but if it is I must say that he is very naive to think that events in zimbabwe can have no effect on South Africa. He obviously hasn’t counted the Zimbabwean refugees in his country! And what a callous remark to make when so many people so nearby are starving and asking for help. that to me is like walking past a dying man in the street and saying “you are not my family, so I can’t help you”.
April 5th, 2008 18:12
You can be assured that it’s all over the international news here in the States, too. My local public radio station runs the BBC World Service at certain times, and they run frequent updates on Zim news. This morning, NPR (National Public Radio) reported this story of the armed guards blocking the doors of the High Court.
It’s in my local paper, it’s the top-left lead article on the NY Times online site, it’s on the front of the International Herald Tribune, the older story about the arrested journalists is at Agence France Presse/English, it’s all over GoogleNews,
you got BoingBoinged the other day, and here’s where this post shows up in Technorati, along with a lot of other people blogging about events in Zimbabwe.
I’ve added your blog to my blogroll, and I encourage other bloggers to do the same, as this raises the visibility of your blog.
The other night I was listening to BBC World and there was a feature from a reporter inside Zimbabwe who recorded a series of audio diaries dealing with how difficult it is to get the simplest things done in Zimbabwe, with constant power cuts, poor-to-nonexistent Internet service, and other challenges. However do you do it? You obviously could school the young man on strategies for keeping his laptop and cell phone charged up (he was unable to file stories via email one night but his digital recorder still had a charge). The same reporter also noted how difficult it is to find out what’s really going on, and how rumors seem to be the only source of news.
In case you can’t connect to any of the links above - you can be assured that the world is watching, listening, reading, blogging, writing, and waiting for news about Zimbabwe - and hoping too.
April 5th, 2008 19:56
I think that when Mbeki considers that the Zim situation is ‘manageable’ he really thinks that, after decades of fear and hoplessness, the poeple don’t care any more what the men in power can do to them. The army’s chief of staff, the head of the air force, and the national police commissioner, are the ones to persuade Mugabe to leave. But how much have they got to lose from political change?
April 5th, 2008 20:49
Thank you for keeping us up to date. I live in Denmark (I am Danish) and have been following the situation since Sunday on your blog - one of the best places I have found to get a hold on what is going on.
What bothers me is that other African leaders from neighbouring countries don’t seem to do anything. How on earth is the UN ever going to be able to react, when the all important neighbours just say “wait” or say nothing at all…
My experience is (sadly) that many Africans - even educated people - continue look at Mugabe as a hero. My girlfriend is Ugandan, and she defends Mugabe and says (like Zanu-PF) that it is just the British who wants to get back in control… Same thing was expressed by some Zimbabwians that BBC talked to just outside the border…
April 5th, 2008 20:55
Zimbabwe - the conundrum of peaceful freedom
I have been moved to express an additional perspective to the challenge of freeing Zimbabwe from the “anaconda-like” grip of Zanu-PF and Mugabe.
In everyway suffering Zimbabweans certainly have nothing to look forward to.
Does the MDC and suffering Zimbabweans legitimize Zanu-PF’s manipulation of results such that there is a run-off election?
Do suffering Zimbabweans participate in something that in itself is not legitimate to their own peril?
Or do suffering Zimbabweans resist the run-off and loose the opportunity to re-assert themselves through a vote that might cost blood and life itself?
What a conundrum?
Or do compatriots in the cause of peace and prosperity for all humanity stand up with Zimbabwe?
Standing up with Zimbabwe such that any access of evil or violator of the vision of a free thinking new age will not be able to wrench freedom from Zimbabwe?
To the United Nations Security Council, the African Union, the G8, United States of America, the United Kingdom and any other regional grouping or domain that has any significance to be mention, should Zimbabwe bleed in order to be understood?
MUST ZIMBABWE BE BROKEN THIS FAR FOR CAUSES UNKNOWN?
Suffering Zimbabweans have only one thing they can do given the distance of the international community.
Given there is no international intervention in Zimbabwe to protect Zimbabweans as they go through this situation.
Given the international community is watching Zimbabwe at an arm’s length.
Sad to say - “No greater love hath a man than that they lay down their life for a friend”
Do not make Zanu-PF and Mugabe’s run-off election legimate because this run-off election is not for Zimbabweans, the MDC has won this election - TRUTH SHINES EVEN IN DARKNESS.
Peaceful resist Zimbabwe.
Why handle a serpent?
Why entertain a roaring lion?
Keep a peaceful distance Zimbabwe.
Quietly and peacefully may the flame of human rights be covered and protected.
It will not be allowed to burn while Mugabe and Zanu-PF behave the way the do, with all the amensty Zanu-PF and Mugabe enjoy through the modern world’s ineffective actions.
Zimbabwe has nothing to fear lest it forgets things will not be like this forever.
Sincerely
Thabo Nkalakatha
April 5th, 2008 20:57
to JO comment #5
It’s obvious why Mbeki is taking this stance. He wants to keep his marxist buddy to the north in power.
April 6th, 2008 04:41
The Mugabe propaganda machine sparked ZANU(PF)sponsored war vets rallying call to prevent British invasion of the land. We could dismiss the vets for being ignorant peasants, without a single original thought amongst them, if not for the fact that their miltancy is renowned. The ZANU mouthpiece, encouraged and unchecked by their masters plainly indicates the kind of rabid and most unstatesman-like politicians the international community tries to engage in dialogue. Can you imagine Britain re-colonizing a country plumb in the middle of Black Africa! Those who give creedance to this scenario are devoid of logic. But then, this is what dictators do - use the peasant mass to do the dirty work, put them up as cannon fodder; beguiling them and bestowing them with a belief of power in shaping their so-called destiny. Create an uneducated force, give them a stick and they’ll take it upon themselves dish out their individual view of justice and determination of right from wrong, arguing ‘why else would I be give a stick if not for beating’. Mugabe is well aware of these profiles, and has studied the machinations of marxism, and received much tutourage from eastern socialists. Those who hope to engage him in terms of international diplomacy, western democracy and gentlmanly restraint will see no results. Mugabe, the dictator, understands the maximun of beating your opponent when he’s down - he’s done it with his people time and time again. This Englishman nicety of saying ‘you’ve taken a knock on the chin - now stand up and lets talk peacefully’ just wont work. It will be seen as a sign of weakness, and the opponents acknowledgement that victory is not assured. The success attributed to the Ghandi approach is wishfull thinking for a Utopian world. In reality the approach worked only once in the modern world, in India. The difficulty is that whilst following middleroad paths in the interests of democracy and peace, the innocent common man are not protected and die all the same. It is the office bearing perpetrators of wrong doings that are rewarded with soft handling, protection and personal safety. And equally guilty of sponsoring injustice are those that return a biblical eye with nothing, or at best, no more than empty words.
April 6th, 2008 05:04
Mr Mbeki’s comments does not surprise me at all. I say Morgan must not let weak leaders intimidate him and push on and stay strong and call for outside help now to avoid any bloodshed.Mugabe must step down gracefully and let the people of Zim have a normal life which they deserve after all these yrs.I can’t wait to come back and be part of this exciting time to help put Zim back on it’s feet again.
April 6th, 2008 20:06
Jo: The prayer chain isn’t anything formally organised but one of those viral sms things that just take off on their own. People are still sending it on but whether people are responding as formally as my colleague attested to is less clear. I think most would do this privately: especially in such uncertain times.
Miko: You make some excellent points. I am seeing a real downturn in people’s mood today, mostly because of this. I personally agree with you that he is looking weak. The challenge though is for people to shake past memories of gross violence inflicted on people with impunity. Or times when elections were rigged and he got away with it. We do need to remember that we are winners and that the ’scores on the doors’ support that.
Ginny: We have a team pulling this blog and our site together. Sharing information and helping each other to do the posting. Sharing access to comms and relying on those who have power at different times etc. It would be impossible to do this alone. A lot of work is offline too.
Henrik: All those people need to do to change their minds in an instant is visit our country. A day or two queuing for food or just trying to survive quickly sets them straight on the reasons why Mugabe must go. He has destryed our country: we vote on the same grounds anyone else would anywhere else in the world. We need someone else in charge of our country because he can no longer do the job. It’s that simple.
Thabo: Our peaceful response is going to show Africa that Zimbabweans do not conform to that African cliche of violence and misery. we must be proud of the example we are setting, even as it is hard to do it.
Malcolm: This blind loyalty we think we see from so-called ‘war-vets’ is often bought and paid for with bribes from Mugabe and Zanu PF. They have a vested interest. Our country is running out of money though, and the bribes are drying up. What then?
exbulawayo: It will be great to have you and everyone else back!
Hope