47% vs 51.7% (p.s. don’t forget the ‘others’)
The first thing to point out before writing this post is that the Presidential results have still not been released. Nor have the full results for the 23 seats being re-counted. This is unacceptable.
However, the press seem to have largely bought into the idea that Morgan Tsvangirai won the Presidential vote with 47% - in other words, without the margin required for an outright victory.
I can almost see Zanu PF smiling smugly as a ‘plan slips into place’ - the press seduced by what appears to be a ‘reasonable’ acknowledgment of defeat in the recounts, followed by a further ‘reasonable’ acknowledgment of defeat from them in the Presidential.
What comes next? Well, I’m guessing that the plan is that Mugabe ‘wins’ the presidential in a run-off and Zanu PF can then turn around and say,
“But we are fair: we accepted defeat earlier so why can the world not accept our win now? The international press is happy when Mugabe is losing but not happy when he wins. The refusal to accept Mugabe as leader is a clear sign of a colonial conspiracy by imperialists who are out to overthrow a legitimately elected leader via illegal regime change?”
And certain SADC leaders will nod in agreement in unison.
Please be advised that these ‘admissions’ are not an indicator of Zanu PF fairness or of their ability to admit and accept defeat. The real test of Zanu PF’s ability to be reasonable and fair has to be considered in the midst of the reality of ongoing violence and brutality, and we need to remember that the real prize for them right now is the fight for the Presidential. Their attitude now is all part and parcel of the grander strategy and we must be careful not to be fooled. Remember who we are dealing with at all times.
So… reports emerged yesterday that senior figures in the government had leaked the results of the Presidential vote.
One source, declining to be named like the others, told Reuters a run-off would be needed because Tsvangirai did not win enough votes for an outright victory.
The unknown sources claimed that Morgan Tsvangirai won 47 percent of the vote, while Robert Mugabe secured 43 percent.
The MDC have a different view. They too released figures which show that Morgan Tsvangirai won 51.7% of the vote and Robert Mugabe 43%. Their figures, published in The Citizen, two days ago, paint a different picture:
| Province | Tsvangirai | Mugabe | Others | Totals |
| Bulawayo | 49660 | 11146 | 60806 | |
| Harare | 227387 | 60523 | 287910 | |
| Manicaland | 212553 | 131856 | 344409 | |
| Mashonaland Central | 78650 | 150889 | 229539 | |
| Mashonaland East | 130753 | 156746 | 287499 | |
| Mashonaland West | 126832 | 134329 | 261161 | |
| Masvingo | 164345 | 152327 | 316672 | |
| Matabeleland North | 68656 | 39143 | 107799 | |
| Matabeleland South | 34437 | 44995 | 79432 | |
| Midlands | 155122 | 162338 | 317460 | |
| Total: | 1248395 | 1044292 | 121143 | 2413830 |
| Percentage | 51.7% | 43.3% | 5.0% | 100.0% |
* we have worked out the figure for others based on the ‘total’ published in The Citizen
If we assume that everyone who voted for ‘others’ actually represent a vote against Robert Mugabe, then Morgan Tsvangirai stands to win 56.7% of the vote in the case of a run-off. Even if Robert Mugabe swung the 5% back towards him, he still would not have a large enough majority in a run-off to defeat Morgan Tsvangirai.
This of course would only apply if the voting took place under exactly the same conditions as the March 29th elections were held. But of course we are all aware now that there has been gross violence and intimidation in the rural areas of Zimbabwe.
May we remind you all of a post we published on April 18th titled Mugabe’s run-off rigging strategy leaked. In this post we pointed out that information had been leaked to us by security forces that - despite the fact results had not been released by ZEC - a run-off strategy was already underway by Zanu PF.
Their proposal was to set a run-off date for 26 May and to delay the announcement of results to ensure they had more than enough time to establish their plan.
The run-off election date being proposed is Monday, May 26th – the Monday working day set aside as a public holiday to honour Africa Day on Sunday, May 25th.
Further to this, our sources indicated that
The Zimbabwe Republic Police have also been instructed not to provoke anyone in the cities and will only act as intelligence gatherers.
Return now to the MDC figures: according to the MDC, the figures they presented above for the cities are more or less set in stone:
“The Harare and Bulawayo figures were taken from the agreed and declared ZEC (Zimbabwe Electoral Commission) figures. The agents have already signed for the two sets of the results,” the MDC revealed.
This may explain why there isn’t a great deal that Zanu PF can do about these figures, expect perhaps allege fraud and set about arresting ZEC officials, which is exactly what they are doing.
The real rigging opportunity presents itself in the rural areas. If MDC supporters can be forced to flee violence and areas are consequently cleansed of opposition supporters, then there will be fewer around to vote for Morgan Tsvangirai and fewer people available to monitor and observe the rigging taking place as well.
The party added: “All other figures were secured from our polling agents from different stations across the country.”
If the government is sticking to its plan to announce a run-off date for May 26th, then they would need to declare the Presidential results officially by May 5th to allow the required 3 weeks to lapse between the run-off announcment and the polling date.
It’s 1st May today, and we are told this:
Zimbabwe’s Electoral Commission is due to start verifying the country’s delayed presidential election results.
Representatives from both the governing Zanu-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change will oversee the collating process in Harare.
So we wait and see.
Another set of figures to remind you about and consider alongside the Zanu PF leaked figures are these projections from ZESN, which we wrote about a month ago on April 1st:
The Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network (ZESN http://www.zesn.org.zw/) have just completed a conference and have now released the following Presidential results: Morgan Tsvangirai leading with 49.4% (2.4%), Robert Mugabe 41.8% (2.6%) and Simba Makoni 8.2% (1.1%) in (margin of error). The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) said its projections giving him 49.4 percent were based on a random sample of 435 polling stations across the country’s 10 provinces.
The margin of error gives Morgan Tsvangirai a result of between 47% (what Zanu PF are claiming) and 51.8% (0.1% shy of what the MDC are claiming). We need to point out however that there are about 8,000 polling stations in the country and the ZESN projection was based on a small sample of 435.
So what really matters is the scores on the doors - the scores that have yet to be released. We need ZEC to release the results collated from the scores on the doors so that pro-democratic forces have the oportunity to compare them with photographic evidence and all the information they have received.
As far as Zanu PF’s rigging strategy is concerned and the leaked admissions of Zanu PF losses, I am wondering how on earth they can ever expect anyone to believe that the people voted out Zanu PF in the House of Assembly poll, and then voted out Robert Mugabe in the first round of elections, but somehow (if they declare a Mugabe win in the run-off) expect us to believe those same people, in the space of a couple of months, saw what a great guy Bob was and voted FOR him in a run-off.
What good has he suddenly done for Zimbabwe to enable Zanu PF to explain the shift that people have changed their minds?
It’s a farce.
The one thing that is completely clear and certain to me is that Robert Mugabe will never ever be a credible leader in the world ever again. Even if a handful of regional stalwarts prop him up and help him to cling on, both he and they will be throughly compromised. I seriously hope those stalwarts are giving some thought to the cost that their support for one old man will have for Zimbabwe, the region, for Africa and the world’s attitude to politics in Africa.
May 1st, 2008 16:21
Wholeheartedly agree, and the point is to eradicate all MDC supporters so Mugabe can win, how pathetic and small minded ?Can the leaders of Africa see or are they blinded to this, or should we ask the question: HAVE THEY GOT TOO MUCH TO LOSE ?? THIS ALL AT THE EXPENSE OF THE PEOPLE WHO THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO SERVE !! May this old man go now, he has lost the plot.
May 1st, 2008 16:31
It is just heart breaking reading all this. We know that Robert Mugabe is finished. But Mugabe’s generals, police bosses, war veterans and other heavy cronies will never let up. They know their time is up, if ever a democratic government came into power. They need to be taken by the people. There is no other solution. The people have to rise up.
Start planning ways to convince the army, police that supporting Mugabe’s party will be their downfall. The best suggestion I’ve read so far in other articles is to stop the goverment from printing any more money. Stop them from being able to pay their army and police. A hungry army is a mutinous army. Block the paper deliveries to the printing presses.
God be with you.
May 1st, 2008 16:39
It is interesting how the % votes for Mugabe are both 43% for the MDC and the ZPF released sets of numbers. I can only assume that ZPF are indicating that more people voted for Simba Makoni (10%) than the MDC are saying (5%). In othe words they can manipulate a run-off by not fixing any of Mugabe’s votes but by switching or adding more for Makoni. (of course the MDC can equally under-report Makoni’s number of votes)?
ALSO, why oh why are the ZESN results some how an official independent final analysis of the presidential result (i.e. the 47% to MT we see over and over again in the press). They based it on ~400 out of some 8000 polling stations. Time and time again I see this quoted in the press as some sort of verified and final independent set. We can’t blame ZESN as such because they do present their data with confidence intervals: Morgan Tsvangirai leading with 49.4% (2.4%), Robert Mugabe 41.8% (2.6%) and Simba Makoni 8.2% (1.1%) in (margin of error). ZESN say these projections were based on a random sample of 435 polling stations across the country’s 10 provinces.
My question is - why have they never released a more up to date set analysing more pollings stations?
May 1st, 2008 16:47
The MDC maintains it will not participate in a run-off. So what is the next step? I don’t believe for a minute that MT got less than 50% of the vote even with the skewed ‘playing field’. But there is no doubt that ZANU-PF can push this any way they want to, and they want a run-off. What do we do now? I sent my “ballot” to the Embassy here in Washington and to our representative at the UN. The Diaspora must be able to vote and they will vote overwhelmingly for MT. How do we get those “ballots” to the attention of the world, and specifically to the attention of those African leaders who still doubt that we want a change of leadership? How do we show the world that at least a million Zimbabweans outside of Zimbabwe want a new President, so they can return to their country? What do we need to do to show these people beyond the shadow of a doubt, that we want MT as our President?
May 1st, 2008 17:01
As long as Mr Mbeki continuously masquerade the whole world as a Zimbabwean mediator then there will never be a fair election in any run-off. He is the only person in a strategic position to lobby his African Union colleagues to create a free environment for a runoff. Unfortunately he is continuously gallivanting the whole world preventing potential assists telling them that Zimbabwe will solve her issues alone… How?? Mugabe is armed and i am mere civilian? How can i tell Mugabe to respect the law when he is pointing an AK47 at me??
May 1st, 2008 17:02
How do these numbers compare with the numbers on http://www.zimelectionresults.com?
Where are the discrepancies? And what interpretation is possible for the differences?
May 1st, 2008 17:07
To faraway: I can think of some very effective ways to begin to convince the police and army to stand down from their reign of terror…can’t you?
As to the money issue: My understanding is that the Zim funny money can’t be increased (printed) because there is no foreign exchange (real money) around to purchase the materials (ink and paper) which must come from outside the country (nothing is made in Zim anymore)…Besides, they’re running out of room to add extra zeros for the new 50 bazillion note!
May 1st, 2008 17:26
African leaders seem to be following the age old proverb that “those who live in glass houses should not throw stones.” This, coupled with Mugabe’s liberation hero status, deters these same leaders from attracting the attention of their own electorate, as the strategy employed by Mugabe is one they fully intend to use themselves. This, if anything is a damning indictment of African politics, and the moral standards/values of the self-same politicians.
May 1st, 2008 18:07
Please update the voting table with correct tallies. They’re incorrect for Mashonaland Central (you have 228539 but it should be 229539) and Matabeleland South (yours 79243 vs. correct 79432).
Thanks
May 1st, 2008 18:23
Do we read the blog thebeardedman? it’s very comprehensive on the figures and whose who and who won what seat etc etc…..
Im on a mission to get everyone to think about not banking with Barclays after reading this article
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/1912146/Barclays-Bank-accused-of-aiding-Robert-Mugabe-regime.html
Maybe we can get them to hold onto the money they have and give it to the victims….
As to the printing of money I thinks that was why that German Bank tried to put an embargo on the arms cargo because they printed the money……
The banks in the UK are in big ….. because of overcharging for overdrafts lets just jump on the band wagon…..
May 1st, 2008 19:01
Correct post, Sokwanele. Media, hungry for any whiff of official results, should exercise caution when biting this “floated balloon” for reporting.
You cannot have a DEPUTY MINISTER OF INFORMATION announce election results!
It is not a government announcement, it is a rumor.
Election results have not been “announced.”
Nor have they been “leaked.”
False, cooked numbers have been “floated.”
A trial balloon, a toe in the water, a lie on the pond scum, a hammer on the knee looking for reflex actions.
A party leak from Bob’s mouthpiece.
When Bob farts, you can see Bright Matonga’s lips move.
Bright Matonga, if not a born liar, is a fast learner.
He has done nothing except lie, manipulate, and obfuscate for the past two months.
Hate speech and incitement to commit crimes against humanity are proven in court as crimes against humanity. In the history of hate language enabling crime, Bright’s smooth talk will go down as a notorious case unless he exercises care with his words and actions.
Democratic governments do away with the minister of information post inherited from single-party systems. He is not even a legitimate representative of electoral policy. As loud-hailer for a government on the way out, Bright is in a caretaker post and does not receive a battery recharge.
May 1st, 2008 19:26
Thanks Filip: That was sloppy typing on my behalf… now corrected. It doesn’t affect the final percentages.
May 1st, 2008 20:12
I understand that Morgan has told at least one news channel today (France News 24) that, once the presidential results are declared, he will go back.
May 1st, 2008 20:35
Wow this is just so sad and crazy! I have no words. How in the world can they say there will be a run off when they haven’t even released the results? What an awful awful situation. Your analysis is totally correct, I believe, unfortunately.
May 1st, 2008 20:36
I am not a constitutional lawyer, but can someone tell me if a sitting Zimbabwe president can be impeached? I don’t think by any stretch of the imagination ZANU will let Mugabe lose a run-off. They need him rudderless as they are now. I say the MDC should not contest the run-off for to do so is akin to participating in the robbery of your own house: It is also to say the people who have been murdered and are being tortured are not worth any recognition. Their lives and votes would have counted for zero if the MDC were to participate in this cooked up run-off. Let ZEC declare Mugabe winner by default and we all know nobody will touch him, no legitimacy at home and abroad, non-whatsoever. As soon as Parliament convenes the first order of business would be to start the process of impeaching Mugabe- the charge being subversion of the country’s constitution.Create a gridlock that paralyzes whatever sham government he installs; intensify his diplomatic isolation and launch a high visibility international campaign to bring to book all the people implicated in the current wave of violence: Eh!!! I am just thinking aloud
May 1st, 2008 22:25
Mambo, well said…i 2nd that notion…hope you can suggest that to the MDC bunch via their website..
Its sad but yes, Morgan should not go for the run-off and should let the people know that it is pointless for the reasons that are clear to most of us.
May those people who voted for change R.I.P.
May 1st, 2008 22:30
Mambo - You are correct and Morgan’s has stated again today (interview with France 24) that participation in a run-off is out of the question. In the interview he gives three reasons for this. He says he has clearly won, and even with his 47%, together with his colleagues he (as leader of the democratic coalition) has 57%. He is prepared to conduct a negotiated transition, and even a government of managed national union ‘to create security for everyone’. But he rejects as undemocratic the position where the loser wants to negotiate only on his terms. With regard to the army’s position, he states that the few individuals who currently take a hardline position and do not want to relinguish power have a choice: They either have to declare that they are ruling by decree, and by doing so that they have subverted the will of the people, and see for how long they can sustain that position, or concede that the international community, including African leaders are against any military takeover or military rule, and abide by that position. As regards mediation, he does not believe that South Africa has a further role in terms of election disputes, but he thinks the the SADC may become involved in a broader based capacity during the period of transitional power.
May 1st, 2008 23:34
@ True Grit
I address this to you because your posts show you and a few others to be realists…NOT UTOPIANS. (I may be wrong)
As you stated regarding the deterrence factor….the bleeding heart liberal brigade have a flaw…NOT BEING REALISTIC regarding the situation…
Rather than accept the fact that they are trying to overthrow a regime that doesnt wish to go…and in that arena the world is not a nice place at all, the liberals just pretend the jungle doesnt exist.
For all their good intentions and angst (and due to the agendas of their funders) they cant place themselves at the scene of the crime until after the genocide has been committed.
Its the greatest shame and pretence…to see the disaster as it approaches…get hit and then say… ouch!!! All because skewed reason means you would rather let others be hit and film it and play victim (to a SADC and UN etc that have proven non starters for years…the CHINA , SA veto for instance)…
May 2nd, 2008 00:02
Guys who could have ever envisaged this happening in zim. I personally disagree with the attitude that ZANU have in blaming everything on the colonialists. In my view ZANU are the sellouts of the Zimbabwean people they have let us down on many ways. The oppressor before independence was white and the new oppressor is black in other words we can lick the milk from the table which overflowed out of the glass but no way can you drink from the glass. In optimistic terms one day justice shall prevail over injustice.
May 2nd, 2008 01:37
Two Zim teachers killed - unions
IOL
May 01 2008 at 04:48PM
Harare - Two schoolteachers have been beaten to death in the latest
wave of violence after Zimbabwe’s general elections, the head of the
country’s main trade union federation said on Thursday.
“We have received bad news. As we speak two teachers have been killed,
beaten to death,” Wellington Chibebe, secretary general of the Zimbabwe
Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU), said at a May Day rally at a stadium in
Harare.
Chibebe, whose movement is closely allied to the main opposition, said
the two had been killed at a school in the northwestern Guruve region.
May 2nd, 2008 02:23
@ anon
I understand your concerns, and that you have taken to believing that certain geopolitical factors have become embedded in a power struggle which somehow is played in a circle outside the suffering and interests of the Zimbabwe people. This is not the case. The MDC have now united wholly with the other two factions, and this coalition now represents a true lifeline of democratic intent. There are no strings to this, other than a refusal to be drawn into a violent backlash as a sole means of gaining victory.
That is why this site is so important and fruitful. In this modern age of communications the message of truth is teleported so instantly, and the sham exposed so precisely wherever it lurks, that political exiles and refugees can particpate on an equal footing. Don’t forget there are between three and four million of these in South Africa alone.
The poor people within Zimbabwe are being kept captive. They are captive to Mugabe’s view, but now have proved by a good majority not to be supportive of it. But it is also true that if South Africa took a very strong position the crisis could be resolved overnight. It is fast becoming a domestic crisis as well as a foreign policy crisis for South Africa. The social and economic burden for SA will soon become unsustainable.
So the reasoning is not skewed. Yes, innocents are being ‘hit’ and Mugabe doesn’t wish to go, but the rope of realism is slowly and surely being tightened around him.
May 2nd, 2008 06:55
Thank god then that there no more paper to print more useless money. How are they keeping the army and police happy? With IOU’s I suppose? “Hey buddy I’ll give you a spare block of land if you would beat the crap out of the MDC people please.” Or some spare US dollars floating about in their secret coffers & hideouts?
I’d like to get some ways to get the message across to the world;
Is there anyone in Zim who can get hold of actual video footage of the violence, maybe shot on a mobile phone? Can the Munroes possibly record and somehow upload their war veteran gangs on video? The world needs to see the faces of the perpetrators.
Can someone tell me where I can get good info and pictures of the generals, police and gov officials behind the carnage, so I can create a video and put it up on youtube,viddler, etc, for all to know who they are, and what these thugs are guilty of. I’ll find means to create massive hits on this stuff so these cronies will really be known worldwide.
I’ll contribute in any way, so if anybody can help.
Any other ideas?
from Sydney, Australia.
May 2nd, 2008 09:22
The UN needs to get in here NOW. In the event of a run-off nobody in the rural areas is going to vote again; the system of violence is working. With a UN presence, an aura of safety will be felt; people will vote. Without it, i think people will be o afraid to let their voices be heard a second time.
May 2nd, 2008 10:15
Looking at the percentages of the votes more and more I realise ZanuPF’s plan falling into place. During the last elections we were so busy celebrating the urban results where MDC was leading that we forgot to keep our eyes on the ZanuPF machine which by then was busy suffing rural ballot boxes that eventually overturned MDC’s victory. What ZanuPF did was to divert our attention long enough for them to perform their trick. Because they succeeded last time, they are giving it a go again this time, the bastards. The “government source” appropriately leaks the “results” showing Tsvangirai leading but not outrightly. The stage is a hive of activity as we try to outdo each other with different vote percentages. In the meantime, views and opinions are floated about a re-run. All this time no word from Mugabe and his henchmen about the election or the results. Is it because they don’t care? Where are they and what are they up to? This is the main question? How many weeks after the elections and the man is still elusive? It’s because they are already busy stuffing the ballot boxes for the presidential re-run. Guys, about 70% of Zimbabweans lives in the countryside and we have always known that the good old rigging machine works better in the countryside away from the prying eyes of the international media. By hook or crook Mugabe will get his win from the hopeless terrorized and starved folks. We are busy discussing the “47%” Tsvangirai is said to have won while Mugabe is by now sealing his rural ballot boxes for his win. Tsvangirai cannot win guys, period. I know many of you will think I’m such a pessimist but this is reality guys. Mugabe will not go that easily. A man who intends to go will not butcher opposition members and their supporters and throw them into jails to keep them away from polling stations. A man who intends to go will not ensure the ZEC is ZanuPF in disguise. A man who intends to go will not withold election results for over a month. A man who intends to go will look at the parliamentary results and “presidential” results and say to himself, “I’ve become unpopular, it’s time to leave”. Mugabe has no intention of leaving guys. Tsvangirai will not be allowed to win the re-run, not in Zimbabwe. There is much more at stake for the ZanuPF mafia. People like Mnangagwa stand to lose their diamond businesses in the DRC. The mentally disturbed and blubber mouths service chiefs stand to lose their multiple farms and businesses. Mugabe will lose everything. He will be humiliated in Zimbabwe, SADC, and the world. He knows all this and so he will use everything in his control to ensure status quo. Fact; Mugabe knows he lost the presidential by a far bigger margin. Fact; If He had intention of leaving he would have conceded defeat without floating the idea of a re-run. At 84, he knows if he can stay in power for another year or two then he finishes on top. So, now that we know Mugabe’s game plan, what can Tsvangirai do? Or more precisely, what should we do? For a start Tsvangirai must not contest the re-run. Second, Zimbabweans must petition the SADC, UN, UK, and USA for military intervention. This would serve as an example to African leaders with dictatorial tendencies of abusing their people. The world must say “NO” to Mugabe, How can they just watch while he kills and destroy Zimbabwe. The world must start by getting rid of the SA “mediator”, then proceed to give Mugabe and his cabinet an ultimatum to hand over power to the winners. And finally, Mugabe and his gang must be barred from holding public office for life. That way ensures none of them tries to stage a coup and get back into power through the back door. Guys, I hope I have put myself across clearly. We must not play into Mugabe’s plan. He wants a re-run because he knows he has already won that one. Don’t be fooled. There is no independent ZEC. It’s ZanuPF throughout. Mugabe has fooled everyone for so long. Let’s not allow ourselves to be fooled any longer otherwise by the time we finally get serious about liberating Zimbabwe, there won’t be anything left worth liberating. He must go now and not on his terms but ours. Surely everything must come to an end eventually. 84yrs and he still wanna rule us? Christ, what does he think we are? An old people’s home? Come on people, let’s fight for our country. We’ve got to reclaim it.
May 2nd, 2008 11:06
@ True Grit
Thank you for your response.
The reason for my post to you is to hear more about your views on a deterrence factor inside Zimbabwe. Your gut feeling? As far as the use of Sokwanele and others is concerned, there is no dispute, the issue is one of realistic method.
Its deterrence…not just pressure.
As you stated a robber is in your house…even your neighbour calling the police is seeking direct intervention.
I have a problem with the mendacity…one cannot actively participate in a power struggle in the Third World and then act like a crackdown or conflict isnt inevitable or that rules apply.
The side you are seeking to depose has INTEL links to several other agencies of other states and knows, the idea was to launch a ‘colour revolution’ the same type as in Eastern Europe, Venezuela..and sees all parties opposed to it as a fifth column.
You say there are no strings attached…the research says follow the money trail…(who is funding certain opposition groups and why?)
The new idea after this election fiasco will be to apply economic pressures until the situation escalates….this is unnecessary and is not non-violence.
Of all the parties involved…MDC/opposition haD a responsibility to be realistic…look hard at what it was doing. The idea that things will change only if you garner pressure from outside is false…
The SA-CHINA veto shows 100% international isolation of any errant regime is a myth where global interests hold sway.(look at Sudan, Burma…)…
May 2nd, 2008 11:33
@ Jassy
Even Ian Smith thought whites would rule the then Rhodesia for ever. Most politicians, particularly in Africa hardly respect the will of the people. People like Ian Smith,Kabila, Botha etc never respected the will of the majority UNTIL a gun or an uprising was raised. Expect it from Mugabe. I am not advocating for a war but i am just linking history to the current scenario.
May 2nd, 2008 11:57
With regard to a Mugabe led presidential run-off. The more the world realizes for sure that the numbers thrown around by Zanu-PF (i.e.47%/43%) in order to justify a run-off are merely speculative, the more their entrenched position will becomeapparent. An announced run-off with a second round win, or, if there is no contest, a win by default, will make Mugabe’s further hold on power look ridiculous and illegal. He will very soon be in an position of ungovernability in the eyes of the world and will be forced to negotiate a settlement. The alternative would be dishonour and zero credibility under which no regime, of whatever type and persuasion, can govern for very long.
May 2nd, 2008 12:23
@ anon
I haven’t yet digested all that you say, and I’m quite busy today. But whilst I don’t have much hope that Mugabe will go easily, and probably will engineer a run-off to his advantage, I still have a great deal of optimism for an eventual negotiated settlement coming about by force of ungovernable circumstances.
May 2nd, 2008 12:58
I am wondering what options the MDC has in the current situation. It has been proven South Africa will continue to gate keep and any ultimate and public censure of the Mugabe regime is unlikely to come from their efforts. By conceiding to a 43% loss and MDC 47.8% win they are hoping to come out as rational and therefore rightly deserving a run off. We can not fool ourselves that Mugabe will relinguish power easily and at the same time a refusal to participate in a runoff will be handing them the presidency on a silver platter. This might deny ZANU PF a moral victory but I do not think they care anyway.
May 2nd, 2008 13:01
Jassy, You are right, Mugabe is not about to leave town but rather to hit it and big time. There is nothing Zimbabweans can do about this unreconstructed intellectual fraudster who cares naught about what history will record. There is nothing the world can do because in most cases it takes CNN to get people off-their backsides and CNN hasn’t done that yet- our gory images are not gory enough yet to move consciences and that’s why the UN SC discussion was an unintelligible muttering of champaign addled “diplomats”: No things haven’t gotten that bad my friend. I am a student of the realist school of thought which says the international system is chaotic and composed of self-serving parties who make a move only when their interests are threatened. You can bet your bottom dollar most of the sages at the UN from whom we ask help would not be able to point Zimbabwe on a primary school geography map. We are too remote, too unimportant and the South African Ambassador made it quite clear, it is our problem to solve.What arrant nonsense!!!
Forget about international help right now: If there ever had been at time when external intervention was needed, them we missed the opportunity in 2000. Is it not true that a people get a government they deserve and is not also true we are ultimately our own liberators.How many of us throughout the years have failed to add a voice,to speak up and to vote against what was evidently a creeping directorships? How many of us went about our business in the mistaken belief that doing our civic duty of confronting intolerance was someone else’s problem? Or that the growing pains we were experiencing would go away? Varume how many of us never bothered to vote because we thought ndezwekumusha kana kuti zwevanhu veku Mbare? And can you blame Mugabe for concluding kuti tiri madofo over whom he could ride rough shod. We lack sophistry Varume and I admit I am part of the coward brigade that can only rave and rant at my computer screen. I hang my head in shame and right now I cannot shake the feeling I am personally responsible for those gruesome acts convulsing our beloved country- by the mere fact of having done nothing over the years:
To think kuti for 28 years we have been ruled by a madman who has relied on the vote of an innocent and uninformed rural mass some of whom can be excused from bearing the responsibility of propping up this despot.Zwinorwadza varume!! Ah-it hurts!!! Mugabe is being abated by our brothers and siters, vanasekuru,ambuya nevazukuru kumusha uko. Strangest of all is these are the same people bearing the brunt of the country’s voodoo ecomonics. And are you surprised kuti the run-off (to where?) will be fought over these hapless souls?
I dislike making comparisons, we are not Kenyans, and neither are we any of those people who have chased out their local tin-pot dictators. We are unique and perish the thought someone will come to our aid, no that’s too late, and we have been traumatized enough to know what is good for us- humble yourselves and tremble before the mighty Mugabe. What then is the game-plan: To wait Varume for one wrong move we are finished and we can kiss our democratic experiment goodbye. Mugabe won’t live for ever, and I give him 12 months before Alzheimer’s inexorably sets in. Let nature take its course. Then we can cleanse Zimbabwe of the rot. Munangwagwa or any of the possible heir apparents won’t stand the heat and they will yield but that’s only post Mugabe.
And Tsvangson ? Dutch courage plenty but political sophistry?- needs improvement. The smartest thing to do, hand over Mugabe illegitimacy, don’t lock horns with a madman; go back to your constituencies, and comfort the the weak and bereaved, you have lost the battle but there is still a war to win. Use your time to groom yourself, travel and learn from other’s democratic experiments, but otherwise keep Zimbabwe’s hope for change alive; and for goodness’s organize your structures into functional departments and start acting on your vision: Don’t concede defeat for to do so is to betray the many lives that have been lost since 2000 in the name of freedom.
I also suggest the MDC spend time and money hunting talent, they are sorely lacking in strategy and intelligence gathering and how are they supposed to run a country if they can’t get to know what the other side thinks or is doing? This is quite apparent as they are always on the defensive.
What happens in the meantime to the rest of us? I don’t like much of the academic stuff that I read from Zimbabweans. This is not the time to talk about marxism and it failings or to warn us about the implicit dangers in capitlasm. I even read one piece where someone is still talking of land as being an important means of capitalist production: My my!! wake up Zimbabweans, land capital etc have since been replaced by intellectual capital ( that’s what the rest of the world thinks at least for now) as a means of comparative advantage( but then can we be blamed if we only have the Herald as our reference point).
Courage varume, courage even of the screen variety!!
I have heard economists say if the diaspora stops sending in money then the whole thing ( I cannot describe ZANU any other way) collapses; that’s people power. The Chinese arms ship saga shows the extraordinary impact of civil society once aroused. We know the money from the diaspora is supporting this pernicious system and why not take off the life support system and see what happens.
May 2nd, 2008 13:30
Most of us forget that a quarter of Zimbabwe’s population, some 3 million people, most of whom are of voting age, have already fled Zimbabwe into exile in South Africa. If these exiles had a vote, Mugabe would be out of power in a heartbeat.
If there is an election re-run, the international community should be insisting that Zimbawean citizens in exile must have the right to vote.
May 2nd, 2008 14:30
The reason I feel compelled to contribute today is because two teachers were murdered…the symbolism of the act and the deeper sense of what those deaths represent…isnt something to be taken lightly.
As others have stated…in different ways…get real…
People try and make allusions to Ghandi and Martin Luther King, however both these comparisons ring hollow when one considers that both of these men were shot and killed when they ventured into confrontation with the real murderous powers of their day…and never formulated much stretegy as to how these new found level of dictators should be dealt with, though King did hint at more confrontational methods before his death.
The lack of responsibility in some presuming you can effect a regime change in a Maoist influenced state, behind the facade of civilian protest is shocking, see China and how their state deals with the same issues for details and compare Zimbabwean state suppression methods. the Chinese have had their foreign affairs people ‘insurgency specialists’ in Zimbabwe for a long time…
They have been advising the Zanu government (fellow Maoists), from their own experiences of crushing and suppressing pro-democracy movements since 1989 and before.
TOTAL WAR theory…stresses using economic breakdown and social pressure as a weapon to effect political change. If only people would just stop the lies.
Accept that its a putsch..you dont want these people in power….Do the job properly and let people get on with their lives. People should just stop trying to pretend to be playing nice.
To confuse the facade that… we come in peace …with the fact that covert methods are actually being used to try to oust a regime from power is beyond a joke.
The SA government… are they really so blind or so stupid.
Mugabe can do no wrong???…Or do they see more than what some think they see.
Either the world is hearts and flowers or the actual reality is actual global geopolitics.
Zimbabweans should not be fodders for such games.
May 2nd, 2008 15:11
I can hear people becoming despondent - the waiting is hard.
The election agents will be working hard right now trying to find where the “differences” are in the two figures.
We are talking about 30 000 votes? Is that right? There were 900 polling stations or thereabouts. A good accountant will find where the numbers don’t match and then what?
First find the discrepancies and then work out what happened.
My belief is this. If the result was announced as 48% is was more likely to be very much more. That means this is a ruse for negotiating. If they get an acceptable deal, they will let us find the arithmetical errors (oh so sorry!).
There has to be some sort of deal anyway. For purely practical reasons. All the senior civil servants are still in place. They have employment contracts and they have information that the new ministers will need.
Also remember, the process is that a crime is named, there is an investigation, there is a prosecution, then there is a judgment. Until then people are presumed innocent.
That is why it important to know what we will do with Zimbabwe. All that takes a long time. In the mean time, we want to have good lives and we want to be respected for delivering good lives to people around us as well.
Tell me what is your dream for Zimbabwe?
May 2nd, 2008 15:19
@ Graham
That is true. The situation is even worse because 80% of the population between 20-35 are out of the country. 10% would go out at the slightest opportunity and 5% are just “diaspora dependant”.Assuming they are never arrested, only 5% of the active population can afford a descent life in Zimbabwe..
ZANU PF is taking FULL advantage of this because 95% of its supporters are above 40years.. BUt since the life expectancy of Zimbabwe is about 38 years, then we can assume that ZANU has a few supporters…..
May 2nd, 2008 15:22
ZEC has released the “results”.
May 2nd, 2008 15:40
Life isn’t decent without hope and dignity. Which is why I thank Sokwanele. To do even a little restores dignity.
There is a modern English poet called David Whyte who says this
“When your eyes are tired, the world is tired also. When your vision has gone, no part of the world can find you”
We infect each other with our despair and in the end that is all we see. When we talk of our dreams, we encourage each other and other people “see” us. We have to help see our dreams for them to share and support them.
See the main post - ZEC has announced. Well there is our work for the weekend. Where have the numbers changed? Find the V11’s or whatever they were called.
Start mobilising the world to send observers, etc. etc.
May 2nd, 2008 16:08
That there will not be change in Zim by peaceful means should be painfully clear after 28 years of ZANU dictatorship beginning with the first Gukurahundi in ‘82 and the massive government sponsored lawlessness since.
It should be equally clear there will be no meaningful intervention on our behalf from the rest of the planet.
Good luck to us all…but as for me “Give me liberty or give me death” because life without liberty IS death!
Hamba kahle
May 2nd, 2008 16:13
I forgot to add that the police finally did show up at the farm in Nyamandhlovu…to take away the owners 3 shotguns!!!Heaven forbid he should be allowed to defend himself and his family.
So much for all the phone calls to the police from outside Zim. Warm and fuzzy doesn’t work with criminals.
May 2nd, 2008 16:23
In fact, the family may well have had their lives saved by the fact the world was watching; and by the fact that Obert Mpofu was receiving phone calls (a lot more than were mentioned in the comments - we get emails from people who prefer not to leave comments).
Both Martin Olds and Gloria Olds were murdered in that same area under the watch of the same MP; which is why we were especially concerned for the farmer and the farmworkers trapped in that situation.
May 2nd, 2008 16:29
Hey, Lobengula, when was the last time you smiled.
Are you Zim? Zim people smile tooooo much.
The British government has just taken a beating in its own local government elections - no syncronized elections for them.
Go after the Conservative party MPS’s re the Security Council meeting. They are feeling chipper. The Shadow Foreign Secretary is William Hague and is in a very good mood.
He was leader formerly, do you recall? He has a good sense of humor. When asked what was the biggest act of faith he had ever taken, he said: immediately volunteering to lead his party after its biggest election defeat in history. Well they are on a roll, now. He is our man in the UK. Germans here are on to it. Muk is beavering in the States and there is a demonstration there today.
I’ll keep an eye out on this board to see what we need to do this weekend.
May 2nd, 2008 16:58
But we knew what was coming right? What I want to know is what the MDC has done in preparation for this eventuality- Mr Tvsangirai has been sending out mixed signals- to take part or not to take part. The gauntlet has been thrown down so whats next? I am totally against this run-off because the results are already there and are just waiting to be announced in exactly 21 days. More people will die if Morgan takes part in this charade, for the sake of the innocent, let evil incarnate have State House, he won’t take it heaven with him, it will still be there when real elections are finally held and that won’t be long either. So this business of posting results at the polling stations, what good was it? This, is Mbeki’s idea of helping Zimbabwe? Hell No!